David Spiegelhalter

We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives? Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter dissects data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. His The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck guides us to live calmly with risk and uncertainty.

Join him at the Festival to learn how we can all do this better. He’ll take us through the principles of probability, suggesting that it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts. He’ll explore how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. We’ll also hear why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.